TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 4
Tropical Depression “MaringPH”
Issued at 11:00 AM, 08 October 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today
“MARING” SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING ERATICALLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
• Location of Center (10:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression “MARING” was estimated based on all available data at 495 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar or 400 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar (11.6°N, 129.1°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
• Present Movement
Southwestward at 15 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to
300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today, light to moderate with at times heavy rains are still possible over Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Cebu, and Bohol due to the trough of Tropical Depression “MARING”.
• Light to moderate with at times heavy rains may begin affecting Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, and the rest of Visayas tomorrow as the southwesterlies enhanced by the depression begins to affect the central portion of the country.
• Under these conditions, isolated scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps
Current track and intensity forecast shows that there is a moderate to high likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) will be hoisted over several provinces in Northern Luzon by early or mid-Saturday. The highest possible wind signal for this tropical cyclone remains TCWS #2. However, due to the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast, there is a possibility that areas outside Northern Luzon may also be placed under TCWS and that a higher wind signal may still be hoisted within the forecast period.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas will prevail over the seaboards of Luzon and the eastern and western seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• The tropical depression will continue moving erratically as it gradually consolidates over the next 12 to 24 hours. Afterwards, “MARING” will move north northwestward on Saturday morning, then northwestward on Saturday evening. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally west northwestward heading until Monday. A more westward movement is likely by Tuesday as it moves away from the Luzon Strait. On the forecast track, “MARING” will likely track over the Luzon Strait and may pass over or near the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area between Monday afternoon and Tuesday early morning.
• “MARING” is forecast to remain a tropical depression in the next 12 hours. Gradual intensification may take place beginning Saturday. “MARING” may reach tropical storm category by Saturday morning and severe tropical storm by Monday morning. Current intensity forecast shows a peak intensity reaching 95 km/h within the forecast period.
• Considering the trend of changes in the forecast scenario in previous bulletins, there is a moderate to high likelihood that changes may still occur in the track and intensity outlook for this tropical depression in the next bulletin.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Unless superseded by an intermediate bulletin the next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.